I’ve been doing a lot of writing over at Blue Jersey — tonight I covered the gubernatorial debate. You can find that coverage here.
Here’s an excerpt:
- This debate was about connecting with regular New Jersey families. That’s why Murphy focuses so directly on tying Guadagno to Christie; so that she has to own the struggles families have felt over the past few years. It’s also why Guadagno focuses on Murphy’s wealth and career at Goldman Sachs. But more importantly, the race has become a testing ground for what policies resonate with those who are struggling. Is it Murphy’s free community college proposal? Guadagno’s “circuit-breaker” tax cut? Does Murphy’s focus on schools and social justice connect with New Jersey families trying to get by? Do Guadagno’s scare tactics about immigration? Do residents see tax subsidies for corporations or Amazon as job opportunities, or handouts to corporations? Those policies were at the center of many of the sharp exchanges tonight, and that’s why this race is so important not only for New Jersey’s future but for 2018 and 2020 nationally.
- The race didn’t change. On a basic level, the fundamentals of this race tilt towards Murphy. Guadagno has to carry the baggage of an extremely unpopular administration, voters often are looking for change after multiple cycles of the same administration, and New Jersey is blue. That is what lets Murphy play it relatively safe — he’s playing not to win, but to avoid a game-changing moment. It lets him dodge the occasional question, and be vague on the occasional policy (though that strategy has dangers as well, as we saw in the last presidential cycle). It’s also driving the aggression from the Guadagno campaign, which, after spending significant effort to position herself as a moderate on issues such as Dreamers and green jobs, has taken a significant nativist turn. Her campaign (sadly) needs the oxygen of a Trump-style base-rallying screed (or in this case, ad) against immigrants. It’s ugly and says a lot about where the Republican party is that a strategy to energize the base has to embrace this ideology.
Check out the debate, and we’ll be back to our regularly scheduled Camden discussion on Friday.
WATCH LIVE: #NewJersey gubernatorial candidates face off in the final debate before the election. #NJGovDebateREAD MORE: http://cbsloc.al/2xBXuov
Posted by CBS Philly on Wednesday, October 18, 2017
Share it!
In many ways, these debates have shown some of the same sentiment as found in some of the polls being put around pertaining to the general feeling of the candidates (which is not quite a good thing):
“This debate was about connecting with regular New Jersey families.”
It did not seem there was much of a connection on either side, with one of the key points coming from candidate Guadagno when she stated Camden as being the “shining city on the hill.” But without further elaboration on that, the dissection of her assessment should be “for who?”
As much as there was some potentially good ideas/concepts being thrown around (such as education funding (both for districts as well as higher ed.) amongst them, too little was put towards the “how” and like with many elections there is that feeling of “whose ideas sound the best versus what is the actual reality and what can be done” and both candidates put forth either vague or highly optimistic ideas for how to fund some of the plans put forth. On one side we saw Gaudagno get into the notion of auditing the government and the “believed” amount this will save being highly optimistic and on Murphy’s side there is a lot of vague talk in terms of funding schools and his other programs and throwing around economic development as a driving force.
Coming full circle, it all goes back to “who resonated most with New Jersey families?” The debate in many ways did not seem to favor either candidate a whole lot on this front, but without a strong case from Guadagno to really hit home and pull herself away from the Christie administration (as it is something that was brought up a good deal and public polls seem to tie that relationship as a key contributor as well), it may just be a matter of the public opinion of how well (or bad) Christie has done in that regard and how everyone feels his second in command can truly be a game-changer in those regards.