I’ve been having this conversation a lot. People ask me, given the structural challenges in both Camden City and Camden County, what it would take to win. What type of candidate? What type of financial support? What types of political context?
Interestingly, it’s a conversation the entire country is having, as highlighted by this Washington Post piece that shows the challenges of progressives having to overcome not just Republicans, but attacks from the DCCC. Here’s a quick summary:
Across the country, tensions are boiling over between party activists and the Washington-based committees that usually shape midterm campaigns — with insurgent candidates seeing advantages in attacking the so-called “establishment,” and anticipating little harm when the party comes after them.
That piece specifically addresses the NJ2 race for retiring Republican LoBiondo’s seat. Over at Blue Jersey, I used NJ2 and NJ3 as a way to get into this discussion about what it takes for a progressive to win:
In other words, the path for a progressive into office depends on a complicated number of factors. All paths are clearer for progressive candidates who have been doing the work and are able to build professional campaigns capable of fundraising. But the likelihood of winning depends heavily on the timing of political moments, such as MaCarthur’s role in Obamacare repeal or controversy over Van Drew’s gun record after the Parkland school shooting. Sometimes a candidate needs to already be in the race when such a political moment happens, and already have built the infrastructure to turn that oxygen into a victory. Lastly, the local and national party may actually make paths more difficult for progressives by handpicking candidates and supporting them in races with clear lanes to victory. The path to victory may be easier for progressives in relatively more Republican districts — they do not have to fight national and local parties to win, and may still be able to ride the anti-Trump wave into office.
I think these challenges are particularly difficult in Camden City, because each of these barriers are high. It’s difficult to build capacity here, particularly on the fundraiser side where many potential donors are skeptical of putting their name to an upstart. And the timing has to be almost perfect — it wasn’t for Alex Law, who ran the progressive race a cycle before Trump, and therefore wasn’t in a position to ride the current wave into office. It’d be difficult to do so now, in part because Norcross has adjusted and become more progressive (which is good!), undercutting the sharp contrast of a few years ago.
Curious your thoughts on what it would take for a progressive to win here, so please share in the comments!
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