It’s early in Camden’s Democratic Primary. Monday night’s mayoral forum kicked off campaign season here in the city, where both mayoral and city council candidates will be sprinting from today (when candidates are getting calls about their validated signatures) until the June 6th primary. In a sense, the horse race has already started — there’s not enough time for anything else– but this is also the time to get to know the candidates and for candidates to define themselves. Last night’s forum had a little bit of both (and if you want to watch it, I’ve broken it down by question in this post). In the end, Ray Lamboy won the straw poll over Theo Spencer (28-11, with Frank Moran and Amir Kahn picking up one vote each). But the event, and the results, tell us more about the fundamentals of the race than they tell us about how people will vote. This race is currently about name recognition, organizing, and, oddly, education.
Let’s start with name recognition. Frank Moran, the city council president and the presumptive frontrunner, chose not to attend the forum. It was a conventional play that says a lot about the race as it currently stands. Moran has a large built-in advantage; because ballots in New Jersey are organized vertically, many candidates choose to vote for the County Democratic Party’s candidates for every position. This, in some ways, negates the need for as much name recognition. Plus, Moran probably has more name recognition than the other candidates — he has been a representative for a long time, and has gotten increased face time at critical moments over the last year (he introduced the Mayor at the State of the City, for example). Conventional wisdom is that until threatened, the frontrunner can avoid these types of events and that they are actually counterproductive because they give your opponent oxygen and face time.
Ray Lamboy responded with a similarly conventional approach which is indicative of his wider strengths as a candidate. Lamboy repeatedly asked “where is Frank Moran?”, made democratic norms a central pitch of his answers. It was by the book, but still effective, particularly because it tied into key campaign issues such as local control over both education and the county police force. It was also indicative of a clearly-well-pressed performance by Lamboy.
While much attention will be paid to the candidates themselves, a huge portion of any campaign in Camden is organizing. That means knocking on doors, ensuring name-recognition, and having an effective get-out-the-vote operation. Camden residents are hard to reach, and face real barriers to voting. Influencing them, or hitting the right notes while campaigning is only a part of the struggle. Lamboy shows promise in that he appears to be running a relatively professional operation (perhaps influenced by his time campaigning for candidates in the city, or Gov. Corzine at the state level). He came with talking points. He is running a slate of candidate — in part to receive better ballot positioning. He was clearly prepped for certain questions (including a challenging question about his abstention from a vote on the early Renaissance schools). And he brought supporters (including his slate of City Council candidates) that clapped and brought a lot of energy to the room. The final vote, 28-11 with Lamboy beating Spencer, was not indicative of a Camden voting population or even how many hearts and minds Lamboy won. But it was indicative of the seeds of an organization that can race enough money, volunteers and media coverage to be effective.
Theo Spencer took a different approach that showed both his strengths and weaknesses as a candidate. While there was certainly pressure in the room to commit to opposition on a variety of issues, and commit to spending money in a variety of places, Spencer was measured, nuanced, and, at times, almost remarkably unconcerned about the response to his views on government. At times, this was a struggle; residents were clearly frustrated at Spencer’s tendency to tell them that their questions wouldn’t fall directly to the mayor. But his measured approach on a variety of issues (including charter schools) also gave him credibility as a candidate. Opposition will not define Theo Spencer’s candidacy. Theo Spencer will define Theo Spencer’s candidacy. But what I’ll be looking for is evidence of professional campaign machinery that can pair that decision and ensure voters both hear it, and that voters who agree make it to the polls.
On the whole, Spencer appears to have made a strategy decision to be an anti-politician, and we’ve seen a number of anti-politicians resonate with wider populations in the past few cycles. I’m a bit more skeptical that it will resonate here, and think it needs to paired with a water-tight organizing operation to be effective. But it’s important to note that it’s very early in the campaign, and that both candidates were clearly trying (and at times struggling) to connect to the audience. They both have a lot of retail politics in front of them, and I suspect they’ll show marked improvements over the course of the campaign. But neither candidate is a natural retail politician in the Bill Clinton sense, and it’s going to be an important area of growth if either of them is to raise a major challenge to Moran (who himself is a sneakily-good at retail politics, unlike many of his colleagues or his predecessor).
Name-recognition and organizing should be the focus for both candidates now, but education is positioned to be a key issue in the campaign. While the mayor has little direct power over education while it is under state control, the mayor does appoint the school board (which will have power once local control is restored) and both Lamboy and Spencer previously served on the school board. Their records there are a peak into their governing style:
In that clip, Lamboy highlighted process: championing a strategic plan and highlighting his efforts in a hiring process for a superintendent (which was eventually superseded by the state takeover). Interestingly, the focus on process mirrors the first themes he hit at the forum — those of democratic processes and the need for local control. In many municipalities, that might seem wishy-washy, but in Camden, it’s a genuine wedge issue, with some vocal residents frustrated at the loss of power to the state and county over previous decades.
Spencer hit a more conciliatory note, talking about working with the state to return local control and emphasizing his network as a rationale for doing so. The focus on personal networks as a governing strategy jibes with his rhetoric throughout the night about the ways in which his business network would help him govern the city.
Similarly, there were some chuckles in the room when one of the questions was about school lunches:
I actually thought this was one of the most interesting answers of the night from Lamboy. First, he showed empathy — the story about his own child coming home hungry resonated with the room. The jab at Aramark — the contractor who provides school lunches — got a big audience response. And his pivot to criticizing Frank Moran was disciplined and on message. It was one of the signs through the night that Lamboy could run a campaign that used broad progressive messaging (focus on democracy, $15 minimum wage, grassroots movement, and critiquing the local Democratic Party for not being progressive enough) while also using stories and local issues to make those progressive ideals come alive for residents.
For Lamboy, those moments will be key to his campaign — will he be able to excite residents with a progressive platform while building his organization? For Spencer, the campaign has both organizational work to do and a need to define its core issues and constituency that builds on his strength as a businessman. As for Moran, he’ll likely continue to limit appearances to Democratic Party events that limit his exposure to downside moments, connect him to development in the city, suck oxygen from his opponents. It remains to be seen if a challenger can change that dynamic — it’s early, candidates are still growing — but this slate of contenders seems to have the best chance in recent years to do so.
Lots more from this that could be analyzed, but I’m hoping to loop videos on the methadone clinic, Camden High, and more into future posts that are more topic specific. We’re also brainstorming ideas for candidates coverage, so if you have ideas, please let us know!
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